Page 2 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 3 Table of Contents 04: Fall Farm Intro 2026 06: House and Senate: Two Bills on Agriculture 10: Extreme Heat and its Agricultural Impact 14: Farm Business Farm Management assists farmers with financial management and accounting 18: Grain Storage and Drying 22: Cattle Numbers, Prices, and New Federal Rules 26: The Silent Crisis in American Agriculture: Suicide Among U.S. Farmers 32: Satellites – The Future of Farming
Page 4 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Fall Farm Intro 2026 The open fall through mid- October has been ideal for harvest. The warm temperatures, sunny conditions, and some breezy weather have all contributed to drying down crops. Harvest has moved along at a steady pace in most areas, with some having started in early September. Early indications are very good soybean yields, and corn yields not quite measuring up to the 2025 harvest. Of course, the yields vary widely from field to field. Much of the variability is due to early wet weather, and associated ponding in fields from heavy rain events. The month of April had 10 rain events totaling almost five and one-half inches of rain at my house. Most were light, but one rain was 3.75 inches to start the month. Many of the issues affecting producers are similar to past years. Profitability remains at the top of the list. Input costs have continued to rise. Energy and input costs are among the higher increases. According to Farmdoc (Paulson, Schnitkey, Zwilling, and Zulauf) the 2026 projected loss for corn is $82 and a small profit of $18 for soybeans. This assumes some lofty yields of 241 for corn and 76 for soybeans. Using all their cost figures, this comes to $4.70 average cost for corn per bushel, and $10.72 per bushel for soybeans. Their estimates for 2027 look a bit more favorable with positive income of $36 per acre for corn and $86 per acre for soybeans. Many new seed technologies are getting close to availability. These include additional herbicide resistance traits, short stature corn, additional updates on insect control, and increased disease control. While many of these technologies are from genetic modifications, others are from traditional breeding programs. Market acceptance, both domestically and internationally, of these technologies will be the final piece of widespread release. Government programs and policies continue to have a tremendous influence on agriculture. With an extended period with no overall farm bill, piecemeal policies have tried to continue providing the safety net producers need, the SNAP programs many rely on, and conservation measures needed to protect sensitive areas. Tariffs, runups in diesel cost, and costs of certain fertilizer materials have also combined to put a squeeze on agriculture, and transportation to a large degree.
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 5 Navigating a “new normal” is very important to success in a business sense. As harvest progresses, don’t forget the support services that help make everything happen! Equipment dealers, fertilizer dealers, grain facilities, financial institutions, data services, and a host of others providing goods and services to the industry are invaluable. According to the Research Service of USDA, over 10% of jobs are agriculture, forestry, and food related. As fall continues, be vigilant on the roads with the continued farm equipment traffic. Much of the equipment is wider than lane widths and travels at greatly reduced speeds. The combination provides many potential situations requiring patience, alertness, and consideration. Farm traffic is doing all it can to move things along as well. Enjoy the fall months, with cooler weather coming there isn’t much better than the cool, crisp, and colorful fall. [John Fulton]
Page 6 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 House and Senate: Two Bills on Agriculture On April 30, 2026, the United States House of Representatives passed the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (FFNSA 2026). The Senate is working on a farm bill as well, which they refer to as either the Agriculture Act of 2026 or Farm Bill 2.0. While the second is still a draft and has not been passed yet, both the House and Senate are trying to do the same thing: update the current 2018 Farm Bill. What is the 2018 Farm Bill? This bill is a set of laws passed about once every five years. According to the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, the bill “has a tremendous impact on farming livelihoods, how food is grown, and what kinds of foods are grown.” The 2018 Farm Bill is broken up into 11 parts called titles. These titles cover commodities, conservation, nutrition, credit, rural development, research, extension and related matters, forestry, energy, horticulture, crop insurance, and miscellaneous. Why are the House and the Senate working on new bills? Farm bills are updated about once every five years. The provisions of the 2018 Farm Bill were set to end on September 30, 2023. Through resolutions, the provisions of the bill were extended through September 30, 2026. That was nearly a month ago, and the bill was not extended any further as of this article. Rather, the Senate and House are trying to work on new legislation that would act as a new version of the 2018 Farm Bill. Why did both chambers of Congress start working on their own version of what amounts to the same outcome? While it may sound counterintuitive, this is actually part of the legislative process. Both chambers of Congress will make their own versions of a farm bill and pass them. They will then negotiate a final draft of the bill with parts of each of their own draft bills.
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 7 How similar are the FFNSA 2026 from the House and the Agricultural Act of 2026 from the Senate? There are some areas that are similar or even identical, while other areas are quite different. For example, on the “Dairy Forward Pricing Program,” which gives authorization to a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) diary pricing program, the two chambers are quite similar. The FFNSA 2026 removes the program’s end date, while the Agricultural Act of 2026 has small grammatical changes. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) food benefits are an area where there is some difference between the two chambers. The FFNSA 2026 looks to expand what foods would be eligible, adding things like rotisserie chicken and other “hot prepared foods.” The Agricultural Act of 2026, on the other hand, does not look to expand what foods can be purchased. Rather, its current language adds more strict requirements on where the SNAP money can be spent, including online-only companies. What do these bills say about farmers and agriculture? When it comes to the FFNSA 2026, it aims to keep many existing farm support programs in place. The bill continues Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC), it changes some of the rules around crop insurance, and it adjusts the Tree Assistance Program to cover losses from pest infestations that make trees become unproductive. The Agricultural Act of 2026 has many of the same provisions, increasing premium crop insurance subsidies for veteran farmers and ranchers (as the FFNSA 2026 does) and continues the ARC and PLC programs. Additionally, both bills would provide assistance to farmers and ranchers experiencing droughts. What happens next? Both the House and the Senate would need to come together to negotiate a final farm bill. While the House has passed their bill, they must wait on the Senate to do the same before negotiations could officially begin. When will the Senate pass their bill? That is a question that is harder to answer. On September 16th, the Senate Agriculture Committee passed the Agriculture Act of 2026. This is only the committee and not the full Senate. It now needs to be scheduled for a full Senate vote. According to an article from the National Association of Counties, “Senate Agriculture Chairman John Boozman anticipates a floor vote after the midterm elections in November. Will the results of the election impact the Agriculture Act of 2026? It is highly likely that it will, but to say which way is impossible at
Page 8 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 this juncture. The Washington Post previously reported the results of the September 16th vote, and the bill only passed by a single vote. The committee voted completely along party lines, with 12 Republicans voting in favor and 11 Democrats against. The deciding vote came from Mitch McConnell after he was hospitalized back in June. If the wider Senate votes the way the committee did, along party lines, that would be the deciding factor on the fate of the bill. Of the 33 Senators who are up for re-election, 13 are currently held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans. It is entirely possible that the wider Senate may not vote entirely along party lines. All this to drive home the point that the fate of the Agricultural Act of 2026 is still very much up in the air. What would happen if the Senate does not pass their bill? Like with the election results, there are many ways this could go. One likely outcome is Congress deciding to once again extend certain programs such as farm safety net programs. The financial responsibility for programs such as SNAP may fall on states until a full bill can be negotiated. As of right now, there is not much that can be done other than waiting until the Senate votes on the Agricultural Act of 2026. There are also many parts to both the House and Senate bills, so educating yourself on these bills and how Sources: National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition; What is the Farm Bill? https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/ R48918.html#_Toc236316582 NACo: Senate Agriculture Commitee passes Farm Bill Washington Post: Senate Republicans manage to advance farm bill with McConnell’s return different provisions in these bills would impact you is always a great idea. Additionally, taking part in the democratic process and contacting our Illinois Senators about how the farm bill, or the lack of it, would impact you is never a bad idea. Keep your eyes on the news, as something is likely to happen next month. [Matt Boutcher]
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Page 10 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Extreme Heat and its Agricultural Impact This past summer was extremely warm. There were long stretches of heat, with some of the months matching or beating previous heat records. July of ‘26 matched July of ‘24 for being the hottest July on record. August beat all previous years, setting itself as the warmest August ever recorded. Like July, September was the second hottest one on record, with only September of ‘23 beating it. These numbers come from the National Centers for Environmental Information’s Climate (NCEIC) at a Glance tool. The NCEIC started tracking and recording temperature data back in 1895. This warm weather does not seem to be letting up soon. According to a report from the World Meteorological Organization’s UK office, average temperatures for the Earth are expected to continue to climb into 2030. The report states “it is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.” The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also predicts warmer weather, with their Extreme Heat article reading “The United States is expected to continue to warm faster than other parts of the world.” In addition to days being warmer, the EPA also predicts that the number of warm days is going to go up. With this extended window of heat each year, what impact might it have on the farmers and crops of Logan County? What about wider United States agriculture? Corn and soybeans are the top two crops grown in our county. Neither crop does particularly well if the weather is too warm. Starting with corn, the plant does something known as ‘leaf rolling’ if temperatures get too high. This is a defense mechanism to preserve water. Iowa State University’s extension office has an informative article on corn pollination and the effect that high temperatures and stress have on the plant. The article explains the process of corn fertilization and how higher than average temperatures can threaten that. According to the article, silks must grow and be fertilized by pollen in order for kernels to develop. Temperatures above 95℉ with low humidity can dry out silks, but they will continue to grow. Normally, pollen shed will happen during the morning hours before temperatures can get above 95℉. Additional stresses such as low soil fertility or insufficient water can delay silking. If pollen is no longer available, this can cause a serious problem for corn.
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 11 Fortunately, the article states that warm weather itself is not likely to cause lower pollination rates. If that heat is accompanied by drought, however, this is much more likely to have a negative impact. “Drought stress along with high temperatures at pollination and silking… can have serious effects.” The article did have a suggestion for helping to retain soil moisture during drought and high temperatures. “Practices that conserve soil moisture such as no-till or reduced till will improve a crop’s performance during drought.” Moving on to soy beans, they are a little more sensitive to the heat than corn. Rachel Vann with the North Carolina State University Extension wrote in an article that soybeans begin to experience stress when the temperature exceeds 85℉ and remains so for several days. Much like corn, “soybeans will be particularly stressed when excessive heat and drought conditions occur simultaneously.” Vann wrote that high temperatures have the chance to slow or stop photosynthesis in soybean plants due to the plant closing its stomata to try to conserve water. “High temperatures can result in any of the following in reproductive stage soybeans: aborted flowers, aborted small pods, aborted seeds in larger pods, and production of smaller seeds.” Considering that, even in ideal conditions, soybean plants are unable to turn all flowers into pods, this can be devastating to the amount of soybean flowers the plant is able to produce. Vann wrote “depending on the level of stress, 20-80% of soybean flowers will be aborted.” This, therefore, would lead to an equal percentage decrease in the amount of soybeans produced. Like corn, though, it is the one-two punch of high heat and dry conditions that have the worst outcome on soybeans. Farmers growing plants are not the only ones facing challenges due to the heat. Much like people, livestock are also negatively affected by extreme temperatures. Illinois is one of the top pork producing states in the United States. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the heat is especially bad for pigs. In an article titled Hot Situation for Hogs, the USDA wrote “pigs are very sensitive to heat because they don’t sweat and therefore have trouble responding to excessive heat.” According to the USDA article, the heat has a negative impact on things such as a pig’s ability to get pregnant and maintain that pregnancy. In addition to this, if exposed to heat during their pregnancy, pigs “tend to grow slower, are less efficient, their immune systems are compromised, and they get more stressed during standard production procedures.” It is
Page 12 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 not just pregnant pigs that have a problem with the heat, as meat quality tends to decrease with hogs that are raised under exposure to heat stress. There are some things that pig farmers can do to keep their pigs during heat stress events. The USDA recommended the use of good ventilation technologies and keeping windows clear for fresh air. Some farmers use “drip coolers,” which drop small amounts of cold water on the pigs to keep them cool. They use fans with air that is cooled by passing through wet pads. Pigs are not the only animals that need to be kept cool, though. According to the University of Minnesota Extension, heat stress in cows begins at about 72℉ and with a humidity of 50 percent. Cows that are labeled as “high producing,” however, eat more and create more heat. Their heat stress can start at as low as 65℉. A dairy cow’s milk production decreases more as its heat stress increases. Low levels of heat stress can decrease a cow’s milk production by two and a half pounds per day, while severe heat stress can lower it by up to ten pounds per day. The University of Minnesota Extension recommended many of the same cooling techniques for cooling cattle. Good ventilation is important, and farmers can invest in water sprinklers and misters. For cows, another option for cooling is to keep a large amount of shaded area for them. Reagen Tibbs of the University of Illinois Extension office in Lincoln provided some information on how all this heat has been affecting local producers in Logan, Menard, and Sangamon Counties. First, he stated that heat has had an impact on both corn and soybeans this year. “Even though we got timely rains at different parts of the growing season,” Tibbs wrote, “those were countered by long periods of hot, humid, and overall dry weather.” Tibbs expanded on what extreme heat does to corn and soybeans and what has local producers most worried of late. Tibbs explained that extreme heat can also lead to seeds and kernels that are less “full,” which will impact how much crop is yielded. “I have talked to countless producers in the area where grain fill has been one of their biggest concerns late in the year.” In addition to yielding less crop, corn and soybeans plants can also develop diseases in extreme heat. Tibbs shared that, for corn, these diseases usually include tar spots, grey leaf spots, and southern rust. As for soybeans, “red crown rot and other types of crown/stalk rot
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 13 have been a factor this year.” Unfortunately, Tibbs stated that the only real way farmers can protect their crops during bouts of extreme heat is by having “an irrigation system that can deliver some moisture during dry spells.” It is important to understand that the heat of these past few years has not been easy on our local farmers, or farmers across the country. Heat and drought are a terrible combination for any producer, whether they are a farmer or a rancher. While there are some ways to try to mitigate some of the heat related issues, none of these are permanent solutions. [Matt Boutcher] Sources: Yale Climate Connections New report suggests more global temperature records ahead EPA: Extreme Heat Iowa State Extension: Corn pollination: effect of high temperature and stress NC State Extension: How Do High Temperatures Impact My Soybeans? USDA: Hot Situation for Hogs University of Minnesota Extension: Heat stress in dairy cattle Reagen Tibbs, Commercial Agricultural Educator, University of Illinois Extension
Page 14 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Farm Business Farm Management assists farmers with financial management and accounting Since 1924, Farm Business Farm Management has played a significant role in the agricultural industry by assisting farmers with financial management, budgeting and accounting. History and background of Farm Business Farm Management Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) began as a program of the University of Illinois Extension. Several local organizations were soon established throughout Illinois. The FBFM website explains “on January 1, 2018, FBFM consolidated its local associations into a single statewide entity to streamline services and enhance overall impact.” The work FBFM does is considered “a cornerstone of support for Illinois farmers, helping them make informed financial and operational decisions.” In working with farmers, FBFM Farm Business Consultants “assist farmers evaluate alternatives, mitigating risks, and make sound strategic decisions.” Angela Westen, a farm business consultant at FBFM’s Lincoln office, said the FBFM consultants’ main tasks are maintaining farm records, preparing financial reports, analyzing farm performance, providing financial guidance, assisting with tax planning, supporting long term planning, and income tax preparation. Consultants work with farmers, who are known as cooperators, throughout the year. At the Lincoln office, Westen said they work with about 310 cooperators. Westen said consultants help cooperators prepare budgets by reviewing their financial records, analyzing farm performance and developing projections to guide future decisions. To provide research-based insights, educational outreach, and personalized guidance, Westen said that FBFM combines farm financial data, educational materials, and individualized consulting to help cooperators
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 15 make informed business decisions. This includes long term family and business planning, strategic business guidance, financial and production trend analyses, and benchmarking against similar farms. A benchmarking analysis will measure how a farm operation is doing in relation to a peer’s farm. Joel Kaeb & Chet Stock’s article “Looking Beyond Yield: What Benchmark Data Really Shows” said with benchmarking, “the goal is to compare data with other operators similar to you in size, age, soil type, and other factors. This process digs beyond the surface of yield data and can provide deeper insights into profitability, efficiency, liquidity, and long-term business health.” In addition, “Benchmarking helps farmers understand how their operation is working, whether they’re behind the pack in their region, and what changes they can make to improve profitability.” Services offered by FBFM To provide guidance to cooperators, FBFM offers many services. One valuable service FBFM provides is a comparative analysis report which “provides a comprehensive evaluation of your operation, helping you better understand overall performance. The comparative analysis report highlights key strengths and identifies opportunities to improve profitability and retain earnings within the business.” Other consulting services include analyzing trends in finance and production and keeping records of farm business and business management reports. These reports include an “Accrual Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Statement of Cash Flows, Capital Debt Repayment Capacity, Economic and Production Benchmarking, Depreciation Schedules and Projected Farm Income Statement.” In reviewing financial records with a consultant, cooperators have a better grasp of their revenues, expenses, assets, liabilities and debts, which can help in planning for the farm operation’s future. FBFM’s accounting services offer monthly reports of “detailed business accounting” plus assistance with payroll and bill paying. More guidance can be provided in areas such as estate planning, retirement planning, cash flow projections, and other business planning needs. Resources like FBFM’s educational center offer financial advice and ideas on farm management and newsletters sent to cooperators during fall and winter provide an economic outlook for farms. To maintain a farmer’s confidentiality while maximizing research value, Westen said the raw data is aggregated and processed into anonymous farm business records before it is made available to university faculty and
Page 16 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 extension economists. This anonymized data allows researchers to access genuine, comprehensive agricultural data without compromising individual producer privacy. Collaboration with University of Illinois ACES As FBFM collaborates with the University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences. Westen said financial data is shared annually in March once financial and production records are finalized. This information is then summarized in farmdocDaily, which shows data from farms and analyzes the financial trends, comparing them to previous years. Recent data from FBFM is shared in the September 18, 2026, farmdocDaily report “2025 Illinois Farm Earnings Improve but Remain Below Recent Averages” by Bradley Zwilling. Zwilling states, “based on records from 1,927 certified usable farms enrolled in the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association (FBFM), average returns to farm operators’ labor and management increased in every region of Illinois in 2025 compared with 2024. However, returns remained below the five-year average.” These records show “although yields and costs were similar to the previous year, earnings improved because commodity prices exceeded beginning-of-year inventory values and farmers received Farmer Bridge Assistance payments. Higher livestock prices also increased returns for livestock farms.”
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 17 Data shared by FBFM included income brought in, what the crop yields and prices were, what dairy, hog, beef, and grain farms earned, what the costs for growing corn and soybeans were and what the returns for livestock were. In looking at prices for crop yields, Zwilling reports, “crop returns averaged $938 per acre, $65 more than in 2024. Even with that increase, average crop returns per acre were the second-lowest of the past five years and $356 below the 2022 high.” As for costs, Zwilling explains, “per-acre fertilizer and pesticide costs decreased from 2024, while seed costs increased. However, total crop costs remained much higher than five years earlier. Across the 1,927 certified usable farms, crop costs averaged $335.71 per acre in 2025, compared with $335.48 in 2024.” In assisting farmers with managing their finances and collaborating with the U of I ACES, FBFM has been and continues to be a valuable resource for farming operations. [Angela Reiners] Sources: Angela Westen, Farm business consultant, FBFM Lincoln office Kaeb, J. & Stock, C. “Looking Beyond Yield: What Benchmark Data Really Shows.” https:// www.fbfm.org/posts/farm-benchmarking-dataanalysis-illinois-indiana, October 6, 2026 Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association. “100 years of supporting farm businesses.” https://www.fbfm.org/about-us Zwilling, B. “2025 Illinois Farm Earnings Improve but Remain Below Recent Averages.” farmdoc daily (16):168, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, September 18, 2026.
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2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 19 Grain Storage and Drying Harvest is well underway, and the country roads are filled with tractors, wagons, and semis hauling corn and soybeans. Driving around a Logan County town at this time of year, you'll likely see grain haulers lined up, waiting to deliver corn or beans to the nearest elevator. If you live near an elevator, you can often hear the hum of the dryers on a cool autumn night and see the specks of dust flying. One decision a farmer must make is where to take the grain they have harvested. That decision depends on many factors: fuel cost, elevator storage fees, on-farm capacity, and grain prices at harvest. While driving the combine and grain cart, farmers also calculate yields, maintenance costs, and their strategy for marketing their harvest. While you often see semis and tractors lined up to drop off grain during harvest, storing grain at an elevator costs much more than storing it on the farm, and each option has several variables. For commercial storage at the elevator, you typically pay a one-time delivery fee or “in-charge,” plus monthly storage, drying, and shrinkage fees. The “incharge” ranges from 12-16 cents per bushel, while typical monthly storage fees range from 3 to 8 cents per bushel per month. Drying is the process needed to remove moisture from the grain. Drying fees range from 3 to 6 cents per point of moisture per bushel. The elevator also accounts for shrinkage, which is the loss of grain weight and volume that happens during the drying process. Shrinkage usually carries a fee of 1.4 percent per point of moisture. For example, if a farmer brought 10,000 bushels of corn to an elevator at 18 percent moisture, it would need to be dried down to the standard 15 percent moisture. At an average of 4 cents per point of moisture, drying would cost $1,200. With the “in-charge fee of approximately 15 cents per bushel and 5 cents per bushel for 3 months of storage, the farmer is faced with $4,200 before the shrinkage is factored into the equation. These numbers can make operating on tight margins, as farmers often do, even harder. Elevator fees and dwindling profits are not the only downsides of storing grain at an elevator. During peak harvest, elevators also feel the heat, as they often take on extra help to expedite unloading, however, the influx of grain in the fall leads to long wait times. These wait times can reduce field productivity and increase labor and fuel costs. If the grain
Page 20 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 cart and combine fill up in the field and trucks aren’t back, farmers can waste precious time, especially when they're working in short weather windows. In good years, elevators may run out of storage and be unable to accept new grain. This can impact how the farmer markets the commodity if the elevator places a deadline or other restrictions. Elevators may also shorten hours because of capacity or labor shortages, and farmers can only work until their hauling equipment is full. In many fields, you will see semis preloaded for the next morning, and in some cases, they will be lined up near the elevator to get an even earlier start. It is not all doom and gloom for storing grain at an elevator. Farmers prefer storing grain at the elevator for several reasons. While elevators have several different fees associated with storage, building bins, installing drying systems, concrete pads, and other necessary equipment is a considerable investment. Depending on the year, that capital could be used to purchase other field equipment or invest in next year’s crop. Storing grain off the farm also shifts responsibility for maintaining grain quality. Elevator handlers monitor the grain’s temperature and moisture, preventing mold and spoilage. This lightens farmers' post-harvest workload. Many elevators also provide access to marketing tools farmers can use to sell their commodities, such as basis contracts and delayed pricing agreements. Some farmers can store their grain on the farm. This option can eliminate some obstacles for farmers but create others. The first obstacle it eliminates is haul and wait time. If the field is near the bin site, the combine can keep running with minimal delays. This saves on fuel and labor costs. Keeping the grain on the farm also provides the farmer with the
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 21 freedom to sell to any buyer. They can sell to nearby ethanol plants, feed mills, or river terminals whenever prices improve, without being locked into one elevator’s pricing. In winter, some facilities pay premiums for grain delivered directly, giving on-farm storage a slight edge over elevator storage. Larger bins usually cost less per bushel because the expenses of preparing the bin and operating the equipment are spread across more volume. A standard 30,000-bushel bin installed on a concrete pad and equipped with aeration, a sweep auger, and an electrical setup can cost between $65,000 and $90,000. While this upfront cost may seem daunting, once it is paid off, general maintenance and operating costs for the bins are low. However, the farmer will still incur recurring costs like taxes, insurance, and energy. In the end, once the bins are paid off, the farmer will save approximately 25 to 50 cents per bushel per year. Grain storage is just one of the many complex decisions that farmers must make each year. It is not a one-size-fits-all decision. Some farmers split their harvest between bins on the farm and the elevator, while others have large capacity elevators of their own. When the elevator lines have thinned and the bins are filled, the farmers' work is just beginning and never truly finished. [Joli Boerma Crane] Sources: Farm Bureua Financial Services Traction Ag Topflight Grain Cooperative
Page 22 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Cattle Numbers, Prices, and New Federal Rules Over the past several years, American consumers have felt the effects of inflation in nearly every corner of life, from the gas pump to the grocery store. Gas prices have soared and so has the cost of feeding a family. Meat prices, particularly beef, have spiked because domestic cattle herd numbers have dropped, and experts warn that using trade policy tools to manage price spikes can be risky for American ranchers and complicate planning and financing for rebuilding their herds. Due to droughts and high operating costs, cattle ranchers have been forced to liquidate large portions of their herds. One of the first steps to steadying beef prices is rebuilding the cattle herd; however, that is a slow process that takes several years. The phase that the United States is currently facing involves strategic decisions by ranchers. For example, a rancher could decide to hold back a young heifer to rebuild their breeding herd rather than sending her directly to market. They are essentially gambling that the long-term returns years down the road will be worth sacrificing immediate income from the heifer's sale. This ongoing phase is shrinking the supply of domestic beef, both fed cattle, which are used for steaks and roasts, and lean processing beef, which is used for ground beef. While the government has placed tariffs on many items arriving from countries around the world, the U.S. is granting a 90-day tariff waiver on out-of-quota tariffs for up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef imports. Typically, the U.S. permits a specific amount of beef imports at a low tariff rate, then an outof-quota tariff, usually 26.4 percent, applies. However, experts believe the tariff waiver is “a narrow tool aimed at a narrow problem.” This is because it applies only to lean trimmings and processing beef from places like Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil. Therefore, it will not impact the price of steaks or roasts. The experts also warn that 300,000 metric tons sounds like a large amount of supply; however, it represents only 6.8 percent of the annual U.S. ground-beef supply and
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 23 does not guarantee new supply. Even with this waiver in place, savings to the everyday consumer are estimated to be a fraction of a percent because of inventory costs, supply contracts, and retailers' and restaurants’ unwillingness to pass savings down dollar for dollar. While the government tries to resolve the issue at hand, tinkering with tariffs and trade policy can have unintended long-term consequences. Imports of cheaper lean trim can weaken the market for older cull cows. The government’s tinkering can also introduce policy uncertainty. This uncertainty can cause future spikes or prolong the current rise in beef prices because it increases the perceived risk of a long-term investment in the herd. This uncertainty can extend how long beef prices stay high. Compared with pork and poultry, the beef industry is harder to predict based on supply and pricing. This stems from factors like biological production, feed efficiency, and industry structure. For typical beef cattle, the gestation period is approximately nine months. After birth, it takes another 18-24 months for the calf to be ready for market. With one calf per cycle, it generally takes three to four years to expand the national supply. However, the pork industry has a much shorter gestation period: a piglet is ready for market after five to six months, and there are typically 1012 piglets per litter, with some hogs having more than 2 litters per year. This makes for a one-to-two-year production turnaround. The quickest and most flexible market is poultry, as incubation is 21 days and they are ready to go to market in six to eight weeks; each hen can produce hundreds of eggs, meaning production can be ramped up quickly or scaled back within months. As for pricing, beef has recently surged to record highs. According to the USDA, beef prices are projected to rise between 7 and 11 percent due to low supply. While pork supply has been growing, that bump in supply is helping keep grocery-store pork prices relatively flat, with a slight year-over-year increase of 2 percent. Chicken, however, continues to reach record output at 49 billion pounds annually; this number is occasionally reduced by diseases like Avian Influenza, but chicken prices remain relatively stable or even see decline occasionally. While prices rise, the demand remains steady. The average American consumes about 100 pounds of chicken per person per year because it is low-cost and provides lean protein. Beef demand remains high, with approximately 60 pounds of beef consumed per person per year.
Page 24 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Pork remains steady at around 50 pounds per person per year. When beef prices spike, fast food restaurants shift to promoting chicken, turkey, or pork products to protect their margins, and grocery store consumers often shift to ground pork, turkey, or chicken for casual weeknight meals, but rarely give up a steak for a special occasion. The American beef industry is at a crucial intersection pressured by biological limits, high market demand, and federal government regulations. America’s ranchers face years of obstacles, including droughts and rising operating costs. These obstacles have forced a drop in the number of cattle ranches in America, adding to market pressure. Because of the biological constraints of raising cattle, inventories will require at least three to four years to recover; therefore, consumers are unlikely to see relief any time soon. To complicate matters further, the federal government steps in with policies that make the market environment even more uncertain for ranchers. Ranchers and consumers will continue to experience uncertainty regarding beef until the American herd has time to recover. [Joli Boerma Crane] Sources: Purdue University USDA Oklahoma State University Extension
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Page 26 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 The Silent Crisis in American Agriculture: Suicide Among U.S. Farmers Farming in America has a long-standing reputation for hard work, independence, long hours, and perseverance. Farmers work through early mornings, late nights, unpredictable weather, and changing markets to produce the food and agricultural products that feed Americans. But behind that familiar image of rural life is a serious problem that often receives far less attention: the mental and emotional strain experienced by the people who work the land. Before focusing on agriculture, it is important to recognize that suicide is not a tragedy limited to farmers or to any particular occupation. It touches people of all ages, cultures and backgrounds in communities and nations around the world. Every life lost to suicide is a tragedy, and family members and friends can be deeply affected by that loss. Farmers are the focus here not because their lives or struggles are more important than those of others, but because the circumstances surrounding farm life deserve to be understood as part of the much larger issue of suicide. Suicide among farmers and other agricultural workers has become an important public health concern in the United States. Research from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that suicide rates vary considerably depending on a person's occupation. In 2021, the suicide rate among men working in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry was 47.9 deaths per 100,000 workers. When researchers looked at occupations rather than industries, men working in farming, fishing and forestry had a suicide rate of 49.9 per 100,000. Those numbers show why the mental health of people working in agriculture deserves greater attention. When the Farm Is More Than a Job Financial stress is one of the many challenges farmers may face. Farming requires producers to make major financial decisions months before they know what their crops will produce or what prices they will receive. Seed, fertilizer, equipment, fuel, land, insurance, and other operating costs can require significant investments. Then there is the weather. Too much rain can be as damaging as too little. Drought, flooding, extreme temperatures, and severe storms can affect an entire season's work. Livestock producers face additional uncertainties involving animal health, feed costs, and disease. Commodity markets create another layer of uncertainty. A farmer may produce a good crop and still struggle financially if prices fall or production expenses increase. For many farmers, financial concerns are deeply personal because the farm is not simply a workplace. It may also be the family's home, primary source of income, retirement plan, and inheritance. Some farms have remained in the same family for generations. Losing a farm can mean far more than losing a business. It can mean losing something previous generations worked to preserve and that the current generation hoped to pass on. Researchers have examined how farmers respond emotionally to these challenges.
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 27 In one study, 600 agricultural producers from Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and South Dakota answered questions about mental health, social support, and different ways of coping with stress. Of the factor’s researchers examined, blaming oneself for difficulties showed a significant connection with reported suicide risk. The findings suggest that understanding how farmers respond to setbacks may be an important part of understanding suicide risk in agricultural communities. The Isolation of Farm Life While farming may involve regular interaction with family members, employees, suppliers, and neighbors, much of the actual work can be done alone. A farmer can spend hours in a tractor, combine, barn, or workshop without having a meaningful conversation with another person. During planting and harvest, the hours can become even longer. Rural location can create another challenge because farmers may live considerable distances from counselors, psychologists, psychiatrists, or other behavioral health providers. Even when services are available, getting away from the farm for an appointment may be difficult. Crops and livestock do not operate on an eight-hour workday. Weather can suddenly change plans, machinery can break down and animals require care regardless of what else is happening. Stigma may present another barrier. Independence and self-reliance have traditionally been valued within farming communities. Farmers are accustomed to solving problems and continuing to work despite adversity. Those qualities can be strengths, but they can also make it more difficult for someone to admit when emotional stress has become too much to manage alone. A farmer who would readily call a mechanic when a tractor breaks down may be far more reluctant to call a counselor when struggling emotionally. Changing that attitude may be an important part of reaching farmers before stress develops into a crisis. Different Ages, Different Pressures Technology has changed almost every aspect of our lives, and farming is no exception. GPS systems can guide planting, drones can be used for spraying and monitoring crops, and increasingly sophisticated technology is being incorporated into tractors, combines, and sprayers. For farmers who have spent decades working in a particular way, adapting to rapidly changing technology can add another challenge to an occupation that is already
Page 28 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 changing in many ways. Age can also affect the circumstances farmers face. Researchers examining suicide deaths among farmers and ranchers from 2003 through 2018 found that a substantial portion involved people age 65 or older. The circumstances associated with those deaths were not necessarily the same for every generation. Problems involving personal relationships appeared more often among younger farmers in the study, while physical health difficulties became increasingly important among older farmers. Those differences suggest that suicideprevention efforts need to recognize where a farmer is in life. Someone beginning a farming career and struggling with relationships or financial obligations may need a different kind of support from an older producer dealing with pain, declining health, retirement, or questions about the future of the farm. Firearms and Moments of Crisis Firearms also need to be considered when discussing suicide prevention in farming communities. In the study examining farmer and rancher suicide deaths from 2003 through 2018, approximately 74% involved a firearm. Firearms have legitimated and common uses in rural America, including hunting and protecting livestock. The research does not establish that owning a firearm causes someone to become suicidal. Instead, the finding is important because access to a highly lethal method can become especially dangerous when someone is experiencing an immediate suicidal crisis. Creating additional time and distance between a person in crisis and a lethal method can provide an opportunity for the immediate danger to pass or for someone else to intervene. Finding Help That Fits Farm Life Preventing farmer suicide involves making assistance practical for people whose lives do not always fit traditional office schedules. Programs created specifically for agricultural communities can help because the people providing assistance may better understand the realities of farming. Through the Farm and Ranch Stress Assistance Network, the U.S. Department of Agriculture supports regional programs aimed at connecting agricultural communities with stress assistance and mental health resources. Agricultural organizations, Extension professionals, healthcare providers, lenders, veterinarians, and clergy may also be in
2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 29 positions to connect farmers with available resources. Understanding farm life is particularly important. Telling a farmer simply to work fewer hours, take a vacation or stop worrying about the business may not be realistic when crops need to be planted, animals need to be fed, or the family's financial future depends on the farm. Assistance is more likely to be useful when it recognizes those realities. Recognizing When Someone Needs Help Family members, friends, and others who regularly interact with farmers may notice changes before the person asks for help. Withdrawal from other people, expressions of hopelessness, dramatic mood changes, increased substance use, talking about being a burden or talking about death are warning signs that should be taken seriously. Immediate assistance is available throughout the country through the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline. A person who is struggling emotionally can call, text or chat with 988. Family members and friends who are worried about someone can also contact 988 for guidance. For the Families Left Behind When someone dies by suicide, family members and friends are often left with grief complicated by questions that may never have clear answers. One of the most difficult emotions can be guilt. Those left behind may replay conversations, events, and warning signs, wondering what they missed, whether they should have noticed something or whether they could have done something different. These feelings can occur after a suicide, but feeling responsible does not mean a person was responsible. Suicide is rarely the result of one event, one conversation or one person's actions. The circumstances leading to a suicide can be complicated, and even the people closest to someone may not fully understand what that person was experiencing. Working through grief and guilt can take time. It may involve accepting that some questions will never have complete answers and allowing yourself to grieve without continually judging what you did or did not do. Talking with family members, a counselor, a support group, or others who have experienced a suicide loss can help. There is no single correct way to grieve. Sadness, anger, confusion, and guilt can all be part of that process. Remembering the person, talking about the
Page 30 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 loss, and eventually allowing yourself to continue living does not mean forgetting them. For those grieving a suicide, healing may not mean completely understanding why it happened. Instead, it may mean learning to live with unanswered questions without allowing guilt to define the rest of their lives. Where to Find Help If you are thinking about suicide or are in emotional crisis, call, or text 988 for free, confidential help 24 hours a day, seven days a week. https://988lifeline.org/get-help/ If you are concerned that a friend, relative or someone you know may be considering suicide, the following page explains warning signs, how to talk with the person and steps you can take to help. https://988lifeline.org/help-someone-else/ If a friend or family member has died by suicide, the Suicide Prevention Resource Center provides information and resources for suicide-loss survivors, including help with grief and finding support. https://sprc.org/populations-settingsexperiences-2/survivors-of-suicide-loss/ Looking Ahead Suicide is not limited to one profession, age group, culture or community, and there is no single explanation for why it occurs. In agriculture, financial uncertainty, health concerns, isolation, relationships, and the demands of farm life overlap in ways that deserve greater understanding. Farmers spend their lives caring for their land, crops and livestock while helping provide for the rest of the country. Caring for the people behind that work means recognizing when someone may need help, making that help easier to reach and supporting the families who are left to cope with a loss. The same compassion should extend beyond the farm as well because every person struggling with thoughts of suicide, and every family affected by a suicide deserves to know they are not alone. [JA Hodgdon-Ruppel] Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/ mm7250a2.htm https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/ PMC8036405/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/ PMC9541098/ https://www.nifa.usda.gov/grants/programs/ farm-ranch-stress-assistance-network-frsanprogram https://sprc.org/populations-settingsexperiences-2/survivors-of-suicide-loss/
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