2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Page 23 does not guarantee new supply. Even with this waiver in place, savings to the everyday consumer are estimated to be a fraction of a percent because of inventory costs, supply contracts, and retailers' and restaurants’ unwillingness to pass savings down dollar for dollar. While the government tries to resolve the issue at hand, tinkering with tariffs and trade policy can have unintended long-term consequences. Imports of cheaper lean trim can weaken the market for older cull cows. The government’s tinkering can also introduce policy uncertainty. This uncertainty can cause future spikes or prolong the current rise in beef prices because it increases the perceived risk of a long-term investment in the herd. This uncertainty can extend how long beef prices stay high. Compared with pork and poultry, the beef industry is harder to predict based on supply and pricing. This stems from factors like biological production, feed efficiency, and industry structure. For typical beef cattle, the gestation period is approximately nine months. After birth, it takes another 18-24 months for the calf to be ready for market. With one calf per cycle, it generally takes three to four years to expand the national supply. However, the pork industry has a much shorter gestation period: a piglet is ready for market after five to six months, and there are typically 1012 piglets per litter, with some hogs having more than 2 litters per year. This makes for a one-to-two-year production turnaround. The quickest and most flexible market is poultry, as incubation is 21 days and they are ready to go to market in six to eight weeks; each hen can produce hundreds of eggs, meaning production can be ramped up quickly or scaled back within months. As for pricing, beef has recently surged to record highs. According to the USDA, beef prices are projected to rise between 7 and 11 percent due to low supply. While pork supply has been growing, that bump in supply is helping keep grocery-store pork prices relatively flat, with a slight year-over-year increase of 2 percent. Chicken, however, continues to reach record output at 49 billion pounds annually; this number is occasionally reduced by diseases like Avian Influenza, but chicken prices remain relatively stable or even see decline occasionally. While prices rise, the demand remains steady. The average American consumes about 100 pounds of chicken per person per year because it is low-cost and provides lean protein. Beef demand remains high, with approximately 60 pounds of beef consumed per person per year.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MzExODA=