Page 22 2026 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2026 Cattle Numbers, Prices, and New Federal Rules Over the past several years, American consumers have felt the effects of inflation in nearly every corner of life, from the gas pump to the grocery store. Gas prices have soared and so has the cost of feeding a family. Meat prices, particularly beef, have spiked because domestic cattle herd numbers have dropped, and experts warn that using trade policy tools to manage price spikes can be risky for American ranchers and complicate planning and financing for rebuilding their herds. Due to droughts and high operating costs, cattle ranchers have been forced to liquidate large portions of their herds. One of the first steps to steadying beef prices is rebuilding the cattle herd; however, that is a slow process that takes several years. The phase that the United States is currently facing involves strategic decisions by ranchers. For example, a rancher could decide to hold back a young heifer to rebuild their breeding herd rather than sending her directly to market. They are essentially gambling that the long-term returns years down the road will be worth sacrificing immediate income from the heifer's sale. This ongoing phase is shrinking the supply of domestic beef, both fed cattle, which are used for steaks and roasts, and lean processing beef, which is used for ground beef. While the government has placed tariffs on many items arriving from countries around the world, the U.S. is granting a 90-day tariff waiver on out-of-quota tariffs for up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef imports. Typically, the U.S. permits a specific amount of beef imports at a low tariff rate, then an outof-quota tariff, usually 26.4 percent, applies. However, experts believe the tariff waiver is “a narrow tool aimed at a narrow problem.” This is because it applies only to lean trimmings and processing beef from places like Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil. Therefore, it will not impact the price of steaks or roasts. The experts also warn that 300,000 metric tons sounds like a large amount of supply; however, it represents only 6.8 percent of the annual U.S. ground-beef supply and
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