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6 March 24, 2016
2016 Logan County Farm Outlook Magazine
Lincoln Daily
News.comthere really isn’t a great answer which fits all
situations. The going rate is really what is agreed
on by landlord and tenant on a specific piece
of ground. Sure, there are some indicators and
averages, but they aren’t specific rents in an area
smaller than a county area.
Two of the most quoted rents are from the National
Ag Statistics Service and the Illinois Society of
Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
The National Ag Statistics Service actually surveys
producers to determine what has been paid, this is
then published in September to cover the current
year. One problem is, beginning this year, they
only do the survey in even number years. So, we’re
looking at 2014 rents printed in September of 2014.
The next one will be 2016 rents published this
coming September.
The 2014 rent average for Logan County was $308
per acre, which was tops in the state.
The Farm Managers Rural Appraisers numbers
come from surveying their members. These
numbers come from professional managers, such as
farm managers in banks or management companies.
These numbers tend to be higher than those from
Ag Statistics, but remember a portion of that is to
recover costs for the landlord to compensate the
professionals for their services. They publish past
and future expected rents for different classes of
land.
The 2015 rent for excellent ground (over 190
bushels of corn per acre) was tagged at $378 for
the high one-third, $350 for the middle one-third,
and $275 for the low one-third. Expected 2016
rents from those were expected to be about $318
for excellent ground. This was the expected number
from early last fall.
Land classified as good (with a 170 – 190 bushel
corn yield) fell off from an average of $295 in 2015
to an expected $267 rent for the 2016 year.
The reality is, rents have been decreasing about 10
percent per year for the past two years. One rule
of thumb for discussing cash rents is one-third
of gross income on corn acres to the landlord.
This would include anticipated corn sales, crop
insurance income, and any government program
payments. A quick estimate for 2016 looks to be
about $250 - $260 per acre, assuming good yields,
stable prices, and adding in estimated farm program
payments (which are now received a year late).
What’s in store for the weather? It is certainly
easier to look in hindsight. The National Weather
Service predictions for the 2016 March to May
period in our area are slightly above average
temperatures and slightly below average
precipitation. This certainly doesn’t mean it won’t
be cool or we won’t have significant rainfall. Put
simply, this is the predicted average for the entire
period.
As we experienced in 2015, and in fact most years,
a few miles difference makes a world of difference.
The predicted switch from El Nino to La Nina
would also tend to mean less precipitation and
higher temperatures.
Given the weather predicted, what’s in store for
farm income? Unless something drastic happens,
the consensus is for farm income to continue being
squeezed.
This will mean further reliance on farm income
safety net programs until input costs decline in like
fashion as crop prices have already.
Not to wish bad circumstances to anyone, but it will
probably take a major weather upset somewhere in
the world to bite into the record stockpile of corn
and soybeans we have built up over the past few
years.
Add in the strengthening dollar, the collapse in oil
prices, and add in other factors, and producers will
continue to look for ways to tighten their belts.
As always, producers remain optimists as we look
forward to field preparations and the upcoming
planting season. There’s nothing better than
working the land and seeing the miracle that begins
with planting a single seed.
Here’s hoping we have a safe, productive, and
successful year in agriculture.