2016 Spring Farm Outlook

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16 March 24, 2016 2016 Logan County Farm Outlook Magazine Lincoln Daily
dry summer, and most of the region found itself in a
state of drought. This is usually what happens with El
Niño; a wet winter, followed by a mild spring and a
dry summer.
Will we see a similar pattern in 2016?
According to Jim Angel, a climatologist at the
University of Illinois, this winter did not fit the typical
El Niño weather pattern, such as the weather seen in
particularly strong episodes in 1983 or 1998. As of
February 22nd, in the United States temperatures east
of the Rocky Mountains were higher than average
over the winter season. This is typical of El Niño.
However, something was missing.
According to Angel, “Noticeably absent have been the
cooler-than-average temperatures often found in the
Southeast in past major El Niño events.” Typically,
the southeast region of the country experiences cooler
temperatures during El Niño. During this past winter,
those lower temperatures were not experienced.
Furthermore, past El Niño events typically result in
increased dryness around the Great Lakes region. For
this winter, precipitation in that area was between 14
and 21 inches higher precipitation than in past El Niño
events. This is different from the aforementioned
events in 1983 and 1998, although all three seasons
shared drier conditions in the southern United States.
So what does this all mean for agriculture in central
Illinois? At the moment, it is simply too difficult
to accurately predict anything concerning El Niño.
Every part of a weather phenomenon like El Niño or
La Niña is crucial to understanding it, but this year,
typical parts have been missing.
Angel says, “No two El Niño events are alike – they
each have their own personality. Unfortunately, this
can limit our ability to forecast what will happen
during an event and what will happen after an event
passes.”
Current weather predictions by the National Weather
Service indicate that over the next three months, areas
in the Southern and Central portions of the state may
receive less rain than normal.
In preparing for such an outcome, it is important to
look at current soil moisture levels. According to the
February USDA report on Illinois Crop Progress and
Conditions, central Illinois soil moisture is currently
in good standing. Only one percent of central Illinois
soil is considered to be short on moisture levels; six
percent is at a surplus; and the remaining 93 percent is
considered adequate.
While current soil moisture levels are looking good,
the prediction of less rain in the near future may be
troubling for agriculture.
It is certainly possible to point to El Niño and its
transition as the cause, it is ultimately too difficult
to say what will happen. When it comes to weather,
every variable is important. We have yet to see what
effect this pattern and its unique appearance will have
on Illinois agriculture.
By Derek Hurley
References
Angel, Jim. “Winter Warmer and Wetter than Average
for Most of U.S.” State Climatologist Office for
Illinois. Feb. 22, 2016.
Irwin, S., and D. Good. “Forming Expectations for the
2016 U.S. Average Corn Yield: What About El Niño?”
farmdoc daily (6):41, Department of Agricultural
and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign, March 2, 2016.
Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/20160229-
IL_Crop_Progress.pdf