October 27, 2015
2015 Logan County Farm Outlook Magazine
LINCOLN DAILY NEWS.COM Page 5
fall between 170 and 185, while soybeans will
probably fall in the 60-something area. There
were fields which were never planted this year,
and that is a rare occurrence in Logan County.
Rainfall reporting stations showed over 20 inches
of rain between June 1 and July 15 in the Emden
and Atlanta areas, with a comparison of about 15
inches for the same time period in East Lincoln
township.
While respectable, these yield levels will push
producers financially at the current market prices.
Since June, estimates of total revenue have
decreased from $864 to $814 per acre for corn,
and from $600 to $543 per acre for soybeans
(source Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
Ag Economist). The newer figures suggest $256
per acre for land cost and operator return for
corn and $195 per acre for soybeans. I encourage
you to look further at the full set of income and
cost figures if you are using as background for
establishment of rent, as they may not all be
applicable to your situation.
The National Ag Statistics Service will not publish
average cash rents by county for the current year.
They are now on an every-other-year cycle. The
2014 average was published at $308 per acre for
Logan County, based on their survey. The rents
from professional farm managers for the state
of Illinois showed an average decrease of 10.7
percent in cash rent figures from 2014 to 2015,
showing a cash rent average of $334 for excellent
ground (over 190 corn average), $282 for good
ground (170 – 190 corn average), $237 for
average 150 to 170 corn average), and $192 for
fair ground (less than 150 corn average). These
averages would be similar what federal crop
insurance 10-year-yields are, rather than what the
crop made in a particular year. It doesn’t take an
accounting wizard to figure out the higher cash
rents are not able to be covered by current income
levels.
Projections for the coming year include somewhat
stable income, and somewhat decreasing input
costs. The decrease in input costs typically lags
behind the reduction in income, and the inputs
tend to decrease at a slower rate as well. The
income side usually shows the same effects when
the cycle reverses, with farm income ahead of cost
increases for a while. Effects of the downward
trend are evident in suppliers from equipment
manufacturers to seed companies. We certainly
look forward to the next uptick in the cycle,
as those are more pleasant for all involved in
agricultural production.
