2012
LOGAN COUNTY FARM OUTLOOK MAGAZINE. LINCOLN DAILY NEWS.com October 23, 2012
4
table of contents
2012
in review
3
Yields: Complicated by aflatoxin 6
The hybrids saved us!
12
Insurance claims in a drought 14
Impact of drought on ag loans 18
Droughts: 1988 vs 2012
22
ROUNDUP: A view from all sides 24
Were farmer’s markets affected? 28
INTRODUCTION: Troy Rawlings 32
Troy Rawlings: Benefits of GMOs 36
An optimistic outlook
39
our way, but there was some actual death
of plants prior to the rainfall.
Livestock producers will once again
bear the brunt of the drought. Lowered
quantities of hay, grain and protein,
coupled with the high prices, will continue
to cause livestock production to be a
“
labor of love” rather than a money-
making proposition.
There isn’t an insurance program
available for livestock producers.
Producers who raise their own feed are
essentially supplementing the livestock
enterprise at the expense of the crop
enterprise.
One way to look at it is that producers
are marketing their corn for about $5 per
bushel through livestock, instead of $6.50
or more when hauled to the elevator. And,
there is the additional labor involved in
the livestock enterprise.
The scenario for consumer meat prices
would indicate relatively low prices in the
short run, then higher prices afterward.
The low prices would be caused by a large
quantity of meat coming on the market
as herds liquidate because of scarce or
high-priced feed, followed by a shortage
caused by reduced numbers in breeding
herds for the future.
Other potential problems caused by
the short crop would include higher food
prices and higher fuel prices. The higher
food prices are more likely to be caused
by higher fuel prices than by the cost of
food production. For example, the total
value of the corn in a box of cornflakes is
still pennies, but the cost to mill the grain,
process, package and then distribute it
(
not to mention the advertising budget)
makes up the largest part of the cost.
The energy prices are directly affected,
2012
in Review continued
as ethanol made from corn and biodiesel
with blends of oil made from soybeans are
proportionately more expensive. It will be
interesting to see what happens with the
biofuels mandates, at least in the short term.
As we look toward 2013, moisture
between now and planting time will have a
significant effect on prospects and prices.
Even with the rainfall we have received late
this season, we remain in a severe drought
area.
Farmers are eternal optimists and continue
to look forward to the bountiful harvest --
next year.
[
John Fulton]
John Fulton is the U of
I extension director for
Logan, Menard and Sangamon Counties.
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