Page 4 2025 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2025 Harvest for 2025 is well underway. It seems each year begins earlier than prior years. As we continue to experience some level of drought into the fall, harvest is sped up even more. As of October, most areas of Central Illinois were in the moderate to severe drought categories according to the US Drought Monitor. The only exceptions were some counties in West Central Illinois south of the Quad Cities area. The warm (or hot), dry weather in late September and early October has made for better than normal drying conditions. Weather conditions have also combined to have most area fields ready to harvest at the same time. The major concern affecting crop producers as harvest continues is the economics of the operation. A good crop is in the field, but markets have offered few opportunities for profitability. The Farmdoc publication for Revised 2025 Crop Budgets shows overall negative returns for both corn and soybeans. Corn uses a 236 bushel per acre yield average, a price of $4.30, non-land costs of $747 and land cost of $278 per acre. The end figure shows a $61 per acre projected loss. Figures may be looked at several different ways. One is to look at the price figure as unrealistic at harvest time, leading to additional significant losses of over $100 per acre. Another is the non-land costs include several variables which will vary widely from operation to operation. These would include machine hire and lease, machine repair, and machinery depreciation to include some of the major ones. These add up to over $140 per acre as well. Soybeans were looking at better numbers, but they have been modified to some degree due to the larger effect of tariffs on the soybean trade. Using the numbers of 75 bushels average, an average price per bushel of $10.20, non-land cost of $490, and the land cost of $339, the net result shows a loss of $54 per acre. Similar exceptions and adjustments might also apply to soybeans and mentioned for corn. Each operation is unique in yields and costs. Government policies continue to play an ever – changing role in agriculture at the Federal and State levels. A few of the major federal shifts include some major changes in the Federal Crop Insurance Program including higher subsidies and increased flexibility. Direct payments were also made for 2024 crops. There are also some programs made more restrictive or deleted, such as some conservation programs including the Conservation Reserve Program and cuts to some SNAP programs. Federal programs may change radically with the passage of a farm bill. Many of the State level policies are more indirect. Some examples would include green energy policies affecting landowners, livestock operation siting processes, and state level pesticide review and application policies. Some of these policies do bring increased dollars into the rural communities and their producers. Fall is a wonderful time of year. We do get the bounty of our harvest, the best weather of the year, and the fall activities and wonderful foliage to enjoy. Remain safe around equipment you are operating, and on the road as it moves from location to location and enjoy the fall season! [John Fulton] 2025 Fall Farm Outlook
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