2023 Spring Farm Outlook

Page 21 2023 Logan County Spring Farm Outlook LINCOLN DAILY NEWS March 2023 According to an article published in August 2022 in FarmDoc Daily - “2023 Crop Budgets: Higher Costs and Lower Returns.” “Costs are projected to increase in 2023 from 2022 levels. At projected cost levels, per bushel prices of $5.30 for corn and $12.75 for soybeans result in marginal profitability, similar to levels experienced from 2014 to 2019. While 2023 is projected to be profitable, risks exist. A decline in commodity price likely would not be associated with similar decreases in cost levels, reducing already narrow margins. In 2023, farmer returns are projected at $25 per acre, well below levels for 2020 to 2022, when farmer returns averaged $232 per acre. While commodity prices are projected lower, those prices still are not low by historical standards. A projected $5.30 corn price for 2023 compares to a $3.66 price from 2014 to 2019. Similarly, a projected soybean price of $12.70 compares to an average price of $9.69 from 2014 to 2019.” Increasing profitability is not going to be as large a goal as simply trying to maintain profitability. With the fluctuating prices of all inputs, farmers this year will be looking to save money more than make money. Gary Schnitkey had commented in a University of Illinois article, “In November 2021, farmers could buy anhydrous ammonia, potash, and diammonium phosphate (DAP) for roughly $800, $600, and $717 per ton, respectively. Farmers who locked in those prices also locked in certainty. “Currently, those prices hover around $1,400, $983, and $862 per ton, respectively. Because of global uncertainty and healthy demand spurred by high cash corn prices, fertilizer prices are expected to stay at these levels.” However, that may not entirely be the case. On Sunday, March 5th the Market to Market report televised on PBS noted that fertilizer prices have been dropping and it is speculated that those prices will continue to float downward throughout 2023. This is good news for those who did not contract fertilizer in November and December, and a bit of pinch to those who did. Even so, the prices have a long way to go before they drop down to those pre-pandemic levels and careful application will still help curb the pain when the bill comes. In an article published in Successful Farming in November, “11 Ways to make money with 2023 fertilizer” experts in the field recommended that farmers choose to feeding the crop over feeding the field. Continued --