2022 Spring Farm Outlook

Page 26 Spring 2022 Logan County Farm Outlook LINCOLN DAILY NEWS March / April 2022 Spring 2022 Logan County Farm Outlook LINCOLN DAILY NEWS March / April 2022 Page 27 The conclusion all of these reports and analyses point to is the growth in consciousness regarding the health and mineral intake of livestock. Those things were originally the driving force for the animal feed market at this point in time. The difficulty in studying this data concerns the timing. Financial reports on the feed market were completed before the Russian military invasion of Ukraine that began in late February. That changed things for every market, especially with the introduction of economic sanctions on Russia from most of the world, and the limited ability for Ukrainian farmers to continue production. As an example, according to a recent ABC report, “In the first two days of Russia’s assault on Ukraine, the price of grain for animal feed jumped 10% on the open market in Spain.” Recent Bloomberg reports suggest that, “The European Union could consider temporarily lifting a ban on imports of genetically modified grains from the U.S. and South America to help farmers struggling with supply disruptions…Spain and France have also proposed a waiver on agricultural goods with traces of herbicide to increase stocks and seek alternative suppliers of mainly corn, which is key for the production of animal feed.” Additionally, summaries from the Illinois Farm Doc suggest that China has a strong reserve of grain, but may still need to look elsewhere for certain ingredients in animal food. “There could be secondary impacts that drive up food prices further in the coming months…Supply shortages of sunflower oil, of which Ukraine is a major exporter, may drive up prices for alternatives such as soybean oil. The latter is important as China imports more than 80% of what it consumes. Soy is also critical as feed for pigs.” For most analysts, China’s reactions are a key element moving forward. “The effects on global grain prices will partly hinge on [China]…China imports massive amounts of corn, barley and sorghum for animal feed from world markets. It could choose to buy those commodities, as well as wheat, from Russia instead of other countries. In such a situation, the impact of sanctions on global grain markets would be relatively small.” As of this moment, the world is still waiting to see who buys grain and from where to see how the feed market reacts. A high demand for Continue 8 enhanced animal products, combined with an increase in demand for feed additives, and that same economic competitiveness that drives every other decision, pushes the feed market higher, and will likely continue to, even with Covid-19 and a war in Europe affecting economic recovery in other markets. [Derek Hurley] Sources “Animal Products” https://www.ers.usda.gov/ topics/animal-products/ “Animal Feed/Food Consumption and COVID-19 Impact Analysis” http://ifeeder.org/ wp-content/uploads/210301-FINAL-REPORT- IFEEDER-Animal-Feed-Food-Consumption- COVID-19.pdf “Alltech Global Feed Survey” https://www. alltech.com/2021-global-feed-survey “Feed Minerals Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)” https://www.mordorintelligence.com/ industry-reports/global-feed-minerals-market- industry “Global Feed Minerals Market – Industry Trends and Forecast to 2029” https://www. databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global- feed-minerals-market “Global Animal Feed Market – Industry Trends and Forecast to 2028” https://www. databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global- animal-feed-market “Russian war in world’s ‘breadbasket’ threatens food supply” https://abcnews. go.com/Lifestyle/wireStory/russian- war-worlds-breadbasket-threatens-food- supply-83279787 “Wheat Price Swings Wildly, as Food Inflation and Hunger Concerns Mount Due to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine” https://farmpolicynews. illinois.edu/2022/03/wheat-price-swing- wildly-as-food-inflation-and-hunger-concerns- mount-due-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/ “Europe Eyes Grains Import Waiver Amid War Shock, Spain Says” https://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/ europe-eyes-grains-import-waiver-amid-war- shock-spain-says?utm_medium=social&utm_ source=twitter&utm_content=commo dities&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter- commodities&utm_campaign=socialflow- organic “Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/ business/ukraine-russia-wheat-prices.html