2022 Fall Farm Outlook

2022 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2022 Page 9 Central Illinois on corn was $506 per acre. The projected farmer return under the same circumstance in 2023 is projected to be $8 per acre because those input costs have caught up and event inflated at a higher rate than the potential gross revenue. What does seem a little off kilter in the tables is the average yield figures? The yield reports are from participating farms throughout central Illinois. Central Illinois is a wide region and also deep. In the southern regions of the central sector soils are less productive than in the Logan County region. Therefore, it is safe to assume that the average on the tables included some low yielding farms that brought down the figure. In Logan County many of the farms will see yields well above the averages used in the table. While local producers may see greater yields and possibly enjoy a bit more than an $8 per acre net, the table indicates there will be a definite narrowing of profitably in 2023. But will the narrowing continue into future years? According to Gary Schnitkey and Krista Swanson of the U of I, “Projections are for a return to much lower profits in 2023, continuing a pattern of rising and falling farm incomes. Periods of high net incomes are following by less profitable periods which often persists for several years.” Comments made by USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer support the word of Schnitkey and Swanson. He says that there is an increase in farm income even with the tighter margins. But he says that doesn’t relieve the anxiety of what the next year will hold for farmers. There is going to be increases in inputs but a leveling off of outcomes, bringing a squeeze on farm profitability. Meyer told Brownfield Ag News that utilizing futures markets will be even more important in 2023 for increasing farm profitability. While it looks to be a few years of struggle for area farmers, that is really just the same song second verse. Each year grain producers face and overcome challenges from the markets to weather. The story is not really as gloom and doom as it sounds, because there are options for securing additional income. Producers according to the experts should be looking more at the commodity markets, hedging their bets with futures contracts, taking advantage of USDA programs, and paying attention to the crop insurance annual adjustments that will come in early 2023. It may also be a good time to consider alternative crops and keep an eye on the horizon for new opportunities for hemp production. [Nila Smith] Resources USDA Economist expects volatility but strong farm economy in 2023 USDA Economist expects volatility but strong farm economy in 2023 - Brownfield Ag News 2023 Crop Budgets: Higher Costs and Lower Returns 2023 Crop Budgets: Higher Costs and Lower Returns - farmdoc daily (illinois.edu)