2022 Fall Farm Outlook

Page 8 2022 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2022 helped hold the prices slightly higher. On the other side of the coin, the Ukraine region is a source of fertilizers commonly used in grain production. The inability to export those nutrients brought on an increased demand for fertilizers from other sources and impacted the cost of those goods. Then came the threat of a rail strike. The inability to ship grain by rail was a real concern and to a certain extent still is. While President Biden stepped in with a temporary fix, the unions have not all agreed to settle and the November deadline for a possible strike is just around the corner. All of these factors have contributed to first the increase in grain value and then increase in input costs. Over time, it will all level out and perhaps reverse but chances are slim that once those input prices go up they will ever go back down to what they were pre-pandemic. The University of Illinois Farmdoc has put together a collection of tables comparing 2016 through 2021 with actual figures at the end of the season and projected figures for 2022 and 2023. The projections for 2023 is that producers will spend more and make less especially on corn. Some of the factors included in the tables is the cost of fuel. Fuel prices have more than doubled since 2016 while the average grain price has increased by only about 45 percent. Fertilizer costs have increased by about $100 per acre and pesticide costs have doubled. Utility costs are higher but not as significantly as one would imagine and labor, if you can find it, is also higher. In 2021 the average corn yields were higher than the previous year but will within the range of 225 bushel per acre, but the prices soared to a whopping $6.50/bushel. Inputs were lagging behind so costs were less, gross sales figures were more and higher profitability was enjoyed by a lot of Illinois farms. Then inputs began climbing and price per bushel began falling. Profit margins narrowed in 2022 and will continue to narrow in 2023. In 2021 when productions costs were lagging behind, the average bottom line figure in CONTINUED --