2022 Fall Farm Outlook

Page 4 2022 Fall Farm Outlook Lincoln Daily News Oct 2022 Another growing season is rapidly coming to an end. Of course, it has been another year of “ups and downs” in everything from markets to rainfall. Many of the same concerns, and bright spots, from the past year or two remain at the top of the list for this fall. We are still dealing with supply chain issues, general concern about the economy, and changes in the climate. Rainfall in our area was spotty at best. At my house in East Lincoln Township, I had 18.88 inches of rain from April through September. April and June were low on the totals with less than 1.5 inches each. September had just over two inches, while May, July and August all had over four inches. Although things remain dry in our area, we were blessed compared to areas to the east of us. Of course, the old expression about being “under the cloud” for rainfall held very true this year. Some areas continued to have exceptional rainfall amounts “when under the cloud,”while nearby areas missed those rains completely. The climate seems to be warming and having more intense rainfall in some areas. We could debate all day on the “cause” such as historical cycle patterns, greenhouse gas emissions, or combinations of these. The end results are variability in moisture for crops, and slightly warmer growing conditions. Cover crop acceptance in production agriculture continues to increase. Touted benefits include better weed control, preventing nitrogen loss from fields, and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The use of cover crops may qualify producers for payments in regard to carbon sequestration. These programs are usually facilitated by companies providing for access to a carbon exchange where the credits are then bought by companies seeking to offset some of their carbon dioxide production. Between payments for tillage reductions and cover crops, it helps pay for the cover crop seed. Farm expenses have been in the same upward trend as consumer goods, and maybe at a much larger percentage increase. This rapid increase will continue to put pressure on farm profitability. According to the U of I crop budgets from Gary Schnitkey et al, the anticipated farmer return is $8 per acre for corn and $43 per acre for soybeans for the upcoming year. Many assumptions go into those figures including yields of 227 for corn and 72 for soybeans, prices of $5.30 for corn and $12.70 for soybeans, and land cost of $341 per acre among them. This makes for a tight bottom line anticipated for farmers for next year. The supply chain disruptions continue to affect the agriculture industry, as well as the home consumer. Availability of farm equipment, parts to service and repair equipment, and transportation for parts and equipment have become harder to come by, and more expensive. A look at the year that was and quick answers to some lingering questions CONTINUED --